Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

A very interesting actuarial analysis to contemplate and store.

Submitted by RDS.




Richard Charnin's Blog
May 25, 2012
Updated: March 24, 2014

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It’s an interesting exercise to calculate mathematical probabilities of so-called “conspiracy theories”. The mainstream media and their cadre of online gatekeepers use the term “Conspiracy Theorist” (CT) as a derogatory label for those who seek the truth. According to the media, there are never conspiracies. But they avoid factual discussions based on the scientific evidence.

These myths are promoted non-stop in the mainstream media:

- Oswald acted alone in 1963 – with a magic bullet and defective rifle.

- Bush won Florida in 2000 and had a 3 million “mandate” in 2004.

- Nineteen Muslims armed with box cutters who could not fly a Cessna, hijacked four airliners and outfoxed the entire U.S. defense establishment – while Bin Laden was on dialysis, near death and hiding in caves.

But the media can’t refute the mathematics that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that there is a massive conspiracy to hide the truth of these events from the public.

Scientific notation is necessary to express the extremely low probabilities of the following events. For example, the probability P that at least 23 material witnesses would die unnaturally in the year following the JFK assassination is 7.3E-40 in scientific notation (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion).

To put the numbers in context: There are an estimated 3 billion trillion (3E23) stars in the universe. That’s 3 followed by 23 zeros: 300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. There are an estimated 700 thousand trillion (7E17) grains of sand on earth or 7 followed by 17 zeros: 700,000,000,000,000,000.

The probability calculations are based on the Normal, Binomial and Poisson distribution functions.

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