Whether such events occur is not known until they occur, as we only see what occurs, not what will occur as a result of reality. This flies directly in the face of business planning where plans are written be they 1 year, 5 year or strategic plans and all are expected to occur based on thoughtful consideration. This is why people get bonuses for meeting or exceeding plans. So why do we have such difficulty in understanding what economists and history teaches us? Is it that that we can not face the truth or is it because we are conditioned by a media not to think about events until reported.
In any case one is best to have a plan based on the best information considering all inputs as the plan will mean nothing and never be achieved without doing so.
The Economic Collapse
By Michael Snyder
12 May 2014
Does the economy move in predictable waves, cycles or patterns? There are many economists that believe that it does, and if their projections are correct, the rest of this decade is going to be pure hell for the United States. Many mainstream economists want nothing to do with economic cycle theorists, but it should be noted that economic cycle theories have enabled some analysts to correctly predict the timing of recessions, stock market peaks and stock market crashes over the past couple of decades. Of course none of the theories discussed below is perfect, but it is very interesting to note that all of them seem to indicate that the U.S. economy is about to enter a major downturn. So will the period of 2015 to 2020 turn out to be pure hell for the United States? We will just have to wait and see.
One of the most prominent economic cycle theories is known as "the Kondratieff wave". It was developed by a Russian economist named Nikolai Kondratiev, and as Wikipedia has noted, his economic theories got him into so much trouble with the Russian government that he was eventually executed because of them...
The Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev (also written Kondratieff) was the first to bring these observations to international attention in his book The Major Economic Cycles (1925) alongside other works written in the same decade. Two Dutch economists, Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff, had previously argued for the existence of 50 to 60 year cycles in 1913. However, the work of de Wolff and van Gelderen has only recently been translated from Dutch to reach a wider audience.
Kondratiev's ideas were not supported by the Soviet government. Subsequently he was sent to the gulag and was executed in 1938.
In 1939, Joseph Schumpeter suggested naming the cycles "Kondratieff waves" in his honor.
In recent years, there has been a resurgence of interest in the Kondratieff wave. The following is an excerpt from an article by Christopher Quigley that discussed how this theory works...